Black Monday Part 2? - Or Even Another Great Depression?
No doubt: Today was a black day for stock markets all around the world.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index fell 7% and the S&P 500 dropped by 8.8%.ÂÂ
The Dow's declines were the largest since the September 11 attacks, and the S&P 500 posted its worst day since the Black
Monday in 1987.The media jumped on the news and did not hesitate to draw comparisons to "Black Monday 1987", "Stock market crash", "Crash of 1929" or even "The Great Depression".
But is it really that bad?
Let's look at the facts:
Before the US stock markets opened this morning, bad news hit the wire: The financial crises reached the Old World. Three European governments bailed out Belgium bank Fortis, the U.K. nationalized mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley and Germany's Hype Real Estate Holding.ÂÂ
But there was more: Wachovia announced that it is in talks with several firms to sell itself. The surprising fact: Wachovia did not fail, but it seems that scared customers pulled funds out of the struggling bank after Washington Mutual's collapse.
The bad news didn't seem to end: Apple dropped more than 17% after a Morgan Stanley analyst cut her earnings estimate for the company. Since Apple is a heavyweight in the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq 100 Index fell 10.5% today.
After the lunch break stock traders learned than the House of Representatives rejected the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, also called "the $700 billion bailout plan". This bill was expected to pass, and therefore the stock market's reacted heavily and send the major indices to their worst levels since 2004.ÂÂ
This made today the worst day in the U.S. stock market since Black Monday in October 1987. In fact, in terms of the absolute dollar market value wiped out - more than $1 trillion - Sept. 29, 2008, is the worst day on record.
But let's not panic: Keep in mind that on October 19th, 1987 - the so-called "Black Monday" - the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index lost more than 22% in a single day.
And even though we are facing challenging times, the Great Depression and following the market crash of 1929 was even worse:ÂÂ
- In the crash of 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 40% in two months. Thus far we are "only" down around 22% for the whole year.
- In the 1930s, more than 9,000 banks (!!!) failed compared with fewer than 20 over the past couple of years.
- Around 40% of all mortgages were delinquent by 1934 compared with 4% today.
No doubt, we are facing tough times. What we need now is leadership and a strong government that makes smart choices. This is NOT a bailout of Wall Street; this financial crisis affects us all. And as we have seen today: This crisis doesn't stop at US borders.
Together we can overcome these challenges.ÂÂ
Let me finish with the words that are printed in "in large friendly letters" on the cover of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy:
DON'T PANIC!
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Don't you feel that the lack
Don't you feel that the lack of money movement between banks and the lack of a deal (if it goes on) that many more banks will begin to fail.
Great view which shows us a
Great view which shows us a rational look in todays emotional news.
Good that i have a subscribtion on this blog :-)
Mario Bouwmeester